Who exceeded expectations and who did not in 2024

 

With the super bowl being over, and the NFL offseason having begun, there are many takeaways from this season to look at, as well as lots to look forward to in the close future. With the NFL Combine in March, the draft in April, and the constant curiosity of what free agents will sign where, there is lots to look forward to before the next season. However, I want to first look at last season and look at the biggest surprises and disappointments from around the league. In this post, I’ll showcase two teams that exceeded expectations, and two teams that fell short. 

The first, and possibly most obvious team that exceeded their expectations this season must be the Minnesota Vikings. After winning the division in 2022, the Vikings lost a heartbreaker playoff game to the New York Giants, but it was still a successful year for the franchise. With expectations to return to the playoffs the following year, the Vikings fell incredibly short, finishing with a record of 7-10, tied for last place in the NFC North just one year after winning the division. They followed that up with signing former first round “Bust” Sam Darnold, as well as drafting JJ McCarthy in the first round. Determined to find a quarterback, even if it takes a few years of development, Minnesota thought they may have found their guy. Little did they know that the guy to lead the team to a 14-3 record, the second most wins in franchise history, and most since 1998. JJ McCarthy required knee surgery before the regular season, and Sam Darnold became the guy Minnesota was waiting for. Finishing in the top five in both yards and touchdowns, and getting Justin Jefferson for a full season, the Vikings proved to many fans that they are to be taken seriously, losing only 4 total games to only 2 total teams. 

The next team that exceeded expectations is the Washington Commanders. Any time a team is drafting at number 2 overall in the draft, you must imagine that the year prior was not very exciting. After finishing 4-13, the choice for who to draft felt obvious. Heisman winner Jayden Daniels from LSU. Commanders’ fans were happy with this choice, due to the clear dual threat ability from Daniels, but nobody could have expected him to have the season that he did. Finishing top 10 in Passing touchdowns, and top 5 in QBR, and 2nd in rushing yards amongst Quarterbacks, he led Washington to a 12-5 record, good enough for a playoff spot. This was the most wins for the Washington franchise since 1991, the year they won the Super Bowl. With Terry McLaurin getting over 1000 receiving yards for his fifth straight season, the duo will be a problem for cornerbacks around the league for years to come. However, going 12-5 is incredible, and they did even more than that. They faced the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first round, and this game was close the entire time. Baker Mayfield led a 5-minute drive ending in a field goal to tie the game with 4:41 left. Jayden Daniels then led a drive taking up every second left on the clock, driving down the field to give kicker Zane Gonzalez a chance for the win, which he capitalized upon, giving Washington their first playoff victory since 2005. Unfortunately for Commanders fans, they realized they had to then play arguably the best team in the league, the Detroit Lions. Fortunately for Commanders fans, they got reassured that this is their franchise quarterback, getting to watch him score 45 points against the top-seeded Lions, shocking the entire league in possibly the best game the Washington franchise has won in the last 30 years. 

 

In my opinion, there is one team that stands out from this season that was more disappointing than any other. At the beginning of the season, some analysts even projected them to win the AFC East. The New York Jets, led by a finally healthy Aaron Rodgers, could not figure it out this season. Adding Davante Adams was supposed to bring a chemistry to the team, and having him paired across from Garrett Wilson, and running with a young Breece Hall coming off a big season, things looked up for the Jets. They had Quinnen Williams in the middle on defense, and arguably the best corner in the league with Sauce Gardener. Whether it was the coaching, management, or something else, the New York Jets were terrible. Finishing at 5-12, two more losses than the year before, the Jets are relying on their new coaching change to be the difference to get them out of the slump that has plagued them over the last ten seasons. The playmakers are there, and if they can bring in a young quarterback to replace the aging Rodgers, this team could be a threat in the AFC in the next few years. 

 

 The next team that had an extremely disappointing season this year was the Jacksonville Jaguars. Being in a below average division as far as competition goes, you would expect the Jaguars to always be involved in the division race. Winning it in 2022, and finishing above .500 last season, there was not much reason for them to take any steps backwards. However, they finished in the bottom 5 teams in the league, winning just 4 games. Despite their losses, they emerged a new young star in the league in Brian Thomas Jr. Leading all rookies in receiving yards, in a very impressive rookie wide receiver class. However, the rest of the team underperformed heavily. Trevor Lawrence didn’t finish the year, and in the games that he did play he was underwhelming. Nobody was consistent in catching the ball outside of Thomas, and Etienne regressed heavily in a year that he was expected to get even better. When you pair that with a defense that ranked 31^st in yards allowed and 27^thin points allowed, it’s no wonder that they finished so poorly. Hoping to get Christian Kirk back after a broken collarbone during the season last year, and getting to start Trevor Lawrence instead of Mac Jones this season, the Jaguars can bounce back if the defense can perform better than they did last year.